Did Google fire the first shot in the mobile revolution? Or is ad-supported wireless a pipe dream? Google-watchers and mobile gurus read the wireless tea leaves.
In setting guidelines for the upcoming auction of wireless spectrum in the 700Mhz range, the FCC approved rules that would require unlocked phones and applications, meaning that consumers would be able use phones and download software for use with any carrier. But the FCC declined to provide for an open wireless network where the winning bidder would have to resell spectrum to competitors at wholesale prices.
Given Google's attempt to help the FCC craft the new rules and its insistence that the agency free up competition in the wireless arena, we asked industry experts how the upcoming auction will reshape the face of interactive.
Here's what they had to say.
Rachel Pasqua, director of mobile marketing, iCrossing
As long as carriers could ensure that their subscribers only consumed content directly from them, ownership of this spectrum would be a cash cow. But the FCC's agreement to support open access to content and the ability to use the handset of one's choice may be the final nail in the coffin for this "closed garden" model.
Now the carriers have no choice but to do what they have dreaded all along: play nicely with Google. This is not to say that they will abandon their own content decks, but there is no doubt that they will lose tremendous traffic to Google, so they have no choice but to give in.
A lot of interesting things could happen. Google could start its own free, ad-based carrier, for example.
But the best case scenario -- and the most likely -- is that the carriers will begin to work directly with Google to share the granular data that they have on subscribers, such as geo-location, to enable mobile advertising. This will create a unique opportunity to serve extremely targeted ads, generating significant cash flow for both the engines and the carriers.
It will also open up the potential for free, ad-supported mobile data usage, something that Google is a vocal supporter of. And free data will, of course, mean a lot more heavy users, creating a lucrative new ecosystem for advertisers, content developers and especially search marketers.
This was a landmark decision that will spur tremendous accelerated growth for the mobile web.
John Battelle, founder/chairman/CEO, Federated Media
It's going to be a black or white answer. Either we'll have an open platform where development and entrepreneurialism will thrive, or we won't. The half step that the FCC took toward openness in the 700Mhz spectrum auction is a good first move, but it shouldn't be the last one.
The legacy business model of the carriers is a de-motivator for the platform to be open. Gate-keeper business models make a lot of money, but they're bad for innovation.