Even with the dark clouds of an economic slowdown on the horizon, 2008 looks to be an exciting year for the interactive industry. Here's why.
Another year kicks off and my seasonal pilgrimage back to North London already seems like a distant memory. But before attacking the unread messages in my inbox, I thought I'd take a moment to make five brief predictions of what I believe is going to impact the world of digital in 2008.
1. Mobile advertising boom -- well not quite, but almost
Yes, this has probably been featured in many "predictions" columns for a good few years now. Progress in the mobile space over recent years has seemed agonizingly slow (in the U.S. anyway), but there are two factors that appeared on the landscape in 2007 that changed things: the iPhone and Android.
Sales of smartphones in 2008 are certain to continue apace, particularly as more manufacturers join the race. Also, significantly, device manufacturers in 2008 are likely to start embracing open standards like the recently launched Android. These two factors should at last provide the catalyst for a boom in mobile advertising. We're not there quite yet, but in the coming year, we're at least likely to be saying "this is getting big" rather than "this should be big."
2. Widget advertising and the monetization of the social networking space
Facebook's Beacon program may not have changed the face of online advertising, but what the site did do that was significant this year was open up its platform to developers and kick-start the widget gold rush. The launch of OpenSocial last month has added further fuel to these flames. 2008 is going to see significant growth in widget advertising as well as the broader monetization of social networks through pared-down versions of ad programs like Beacon.
These two developments will not only provide new revenue streams but will also change the face of social networking, making profile pages far more interactive and giving users new ways to express themselves online.
3. Online ad integration
The slew of acquisitions we saw in 2007 will be leveraged over the next 12 months. What this will mean is far greater integration between display and direct response ads online. This paradigm shift will require a distinct change in mindset from brand owners and, in turn, the agency world. We're likely to see the big agency groups realign planning and buying divisions to better capitalize on these developments. This is also likely to result in smaller, independent agencies gaining more prominence as they use their independence to quickly adapt to changing market dynamics.
4. Online video: professionally produced content to leapfrog UGC
In 2007, we started to see some real growth in professionally produced "made for online" video content. Production houses are finally waking up to the significant online audiences out there and understanding that people are starting to look for more than just clips of that embarrassing first dance at the family wedding. In 2008, this trend is certain to gather further momentum, particularly as the use of Apple TV, Windows Media Center and the like continue to increase. This trend is likely to result in some erosion of traditional TV revenue as budgets are diverted into monetizing this emerging breed of online content.
5. The targeting trade off
The reaction to Beacon has been a clear wake-up call that people can only be pushed so far when it comes to personalized targeting. Despite that, we're entering a period where integrated online ads and the monetization of social networks are gathering real momentum -- two factors that point towards even greater levels of targeting.
As a result, 2008 is likely to be the year when boundaries in the targeting versus online anonymity debate start to become set. As an industry, we're going to have to form a more unified voice with which to extol the benefits of sacrificing a degree of anonymity in order to enjoy an enhanced and more rewarding online experience.
2007 was an exciting year in the online world and, even with the dark clouds of an economic slowdown on the horizon, 2008 looks to be no different. The Olympics and the U.S. presidential election are among a number of major events that are going to be big deals for online in the coming 12 months. I'm looking forward to all of them. Now, back to those unread emails.
Chrysi Philalithes is VP, Global Marketing and Communications for MIVA. Read full bio.