Why is Google doing this?
For Barrett, Google's foray into the reference space makes perfect sense when you consider the search giant's business model of experimentation.
"They have a long history of launching products that tend to dabble in different areas," Barrett says. "Sometimes they take off, and sometimes they don't, that's just part of the company culture there."
But according to Barrett, profit may not be the sole motivator for Google when it comes to Knol.
"On some levels this is a battle with Wikipedia for users, but on other levels it's not," Barrett explains. "I think that Google understands that if this is simply about monetizing reference, it will backfire. Knol may just be about contributing to the spirit of experimentation that has been a part of the web since the beginning."
What about search?
Shortly after Google announced Knol, a Wall Street Journal article highlighted one possible byproduct of Google's quest to enter the reference space: namely that the search leader could be tempted to tinker with search results to help give Knol a leg up on Wikipedia. While the WSJ dismissed that possibility, and Barrett likewise sees little reason for Google to stake its search reputation on a product that may or may not succeed, Google's engineer in charge of the project, Udi Manber, has hinted that search is an element in the Knol equation.
"The web contains an enormous amount of information, and Google has helped to make that information more easily accessible by providing pretty good search facilities," Manber wrote. "But not everything is written nor is everything well organized to make it easily discoverable."
That opaque reference to improving the overall quality of search on the web makes an SEO consultant like Aaron Wall skeptical. According to Wall, one need only look as far as YouTube to see that Google's search is capable of favoring house content.
While that's a possibility, it's hard to imagine reference rivaling video for ad dollars.
The rest of the pack
One underestimated aspect in Google's Knol project may be the search giant's need to keep up with its rivals. While Wikipedia has garnered much of the press in terms of being a target for Knol, Yahoo's Answers, search engine upstart Mahalo and Squidoo could be the real story.
All three rely on ads, and all three could ultimately vie with Knol for ad dollars in the reference space. If that's the case, Knol might say more about what Google thinks of those already operating in ad-supported reference space than its desire to capture some of Wikipedia's traffic. That means Knol may not have to be a top-notch ad platform to be a success. Rather, the goal may be as simple as protecting Google's flanks in its battles with Yahoo and numerous other startups.
Michael Estrin is associate editor at iMediaConnection. Read full bio.