There is no doubt about it, 2009 is going to be a challenge. We will all be dealing with an economic climate we are unaccustomed to and as such will have to park some of the 'nice to haves' momentarily, whilst we really determine whether the basic fundamentals are in place to maximise performance of the digital channel.
This year, marketers will focus on two things: moving into the most cost-effective channels (which may mean moving online for some or focusing in on more performance-based channels like affiliate marketing for others) and having absolute transparency and measurability across those channels. So, in effect, all eyes will be on affiliate marketing and an increased and more sophisticated use of technology to deliver their digital objectives.
Technology to maximise ROI
Given the current climate, technology will be leaned on even more by marketers who may find themselves with less money and fewer resources whilst being under greater pressure from the boardroom to justify any spend. It is clear that measurement and adserving technologies will become critical to provide intelligence to advertisers who have previously been able to invest online without adequate measurement of their ROI.
To get the true value from your technologies, you must make better use of the information they offer and apply the learnings to your strategy to find that percentage point difference. This is the era where being 'as good as' won't cut it, you need to find some space above your competitors. I would argue that if you do one thing in 2009 it should be to improve the way you analyse and measure the effectiveness of every marketing penny you spend.
Focus on affiliate marketing
Affiliate marketing, the pure pay for performance model, is a clear winner in this climate and I expect to see 2009 as the year of clarity and consolidation that this market needs. Like technology, you should not invest in affiliate marketing unless you resource it properly. Whilst I don't think that any advertiser will ever lose out from affiliate marketing, there is a clear marked difference as to how effective it can be in the hands of a marketer willing to give it some creative thought and attention, than those who don't. Can you afford not to do this properly?
With the removal of Google BPF (best practice funding), there will be more and more agencies offering affiliate services to plug the gap. I particularly see this as a huge opportunity to combine our strengths to ensure greater value for advertisers.
Voucher codes and cashback sites
Voucher code and cashback sites will continue to flourish in 2009 and I expect that many affiliates will attempt to enter this crowded space. It will be interesting to see if the big guys are already too dominant to make way for the new kids on the block. I would say though that this market has become more sophisticated very quickly, but we have learnt a harsh lesson about being too reliant on one model, just like the paid search dominance in affiliate marketing essentially made us too reliant on Google. Clearly the landscape will professionalise and the key will be to work hard to maintain a balanced affiliate program.
The last click model, which search and voucher sites benefit, perhaps disproportionately, from, may well be very 'last year'. I'd expect that this year advertisers will start to study path to conversion more closely and analyse the impact these findings could have on their affiliate program.
So whilst it maybe the toughest year for digital marketers, 2009 most certainly presents the greatest opportunities for learning, refining and strengthening your digital presence and performance.
Alison Guise is general manager Europe, Commission Junction and U.K. managing director, Mediaplex.
