Problem of scope
So is click fraud a big problem, a small problem, or a hype problem? Or is it even a problem at all? Let's look at what we know:
Searchers are changing habits constantly. A recent Hitwise study indicated that paid search traffic compared to natural search traffic has actually dropped from 9.84 percent to 7.25 percent in a comparison of the four week period leading up to May 9, 2008 and 2009.
What seems to be missing from the analysis is the defined decline in ads shown in search results. Google, Yahoo and other search providers have been reducing the number of ads appearing in search results since 2007. For example, comScore qSearch data indicates that for the period April 2007 to April 2008, Microsoft, Yahoo, and Google reduced the number of paid ads appearing in search results by as much as 19 percent.
Fewer ads mean fewer opportunities for fraudulent activity in search but opens the door for more fraudulent opportunities elsewhere in the CPC world. Failing and struggling economies in Eastern Europe, for example, along with first-world economies in peril, may very well be fueling the latest round of click issues. Notably, several reports have noted clicks coming from countries where companies are not doing business, such as Bulgaria.
Problem of understanding
What constitutes an invalid click? According to the new IAB guidelines, an invalid click is one that "originate(d) from a user, program or automated agent that accesses a URL for the purposes of manipulating click measurement activity, or click-based advertising payments having no intention of legitimately browsing site content, making a purchase or performing any other type of legitimate conversion action."
Did you get all that?
Basically, if the click didn't come from a human being with the desire to follow a link, the click is invalid.
But then there are less clearly defined situations. For example, if you thought you were buying the ad in Springfield, Mo. and the ad appeared in Springfield, Mass. and someone clicked on it, is it an invalid click? Probably, but that information falls within another section of the guidelines, referred to as "filtering," with very specific protocols for measurement.
Filtering clicks is a problem for publishers and advertisers alike. Historically, Google, Yahoo, and other large publishers have publicly declared that filters were in place to remove invalid clicks. No doubt some of the IAB guidelines came from these best practices, and certification of clicks are now on the scene.
2009 will be known as the year of click validation and the guidelines for certification are actually quite complete in this arena.
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