Considering the sophistication of humans as mammals, it is still interesting how we are doomed to repeat the same behavioral patterns.
Gartner, the IT research consultancy, has developed a considerable business around describing this phenomenon, specific to technology. Their model is known as the hype cycle and shows the key change points, to no particular scale, of people's attitudes on new technologies. Where a technology lies on the hype cycle has implications as to the level of investment a company might want to make in it.
The points, as shown in the chart below, are fairly self explanatory, but essentially illustrate that a mad dash towards a technology causes an inflated notion of what it can deliver; an opposite reaction is then caused by the realization that the technology isn't a panacea and a lot of time/money/effort has been invested for little return; and finally, there's a growing sensibility towards a technology's value-based application.
The key words above are, of course, "to no particular scale." As with property prices and the stock market, we all have a sense that we are in a bubble or a trough; but calling the moments of inflexion is an art, not a science. The Economist, not usually known for its alarmist journalism, warned of the housing bubble as long ago as 2002, and in 2003 its economics editor Pam Woodall reported that "In many countries, the stock market bubble has been replaced by a property-price bubble. Sooner or later it will burst."
As we are all brutally aware, Woodall was right; some five years later it did, and spectacularly so.
The inflation of social media
There is a fairly easy translation of the above model to social media. The recent Skittles/Twitter example demonstrates it well -- a rush towards a technological medium with little thought as to the utility or value delivered to the end consumer. In fact, one might consider that given the campaign was so open to abuse, the value delivered was firmly in the negative territory, and thus it fell into the "trough of disillusionment."
But how flawed is this approach? If a technology is at "the peak of inflated expectations," then is it fair to assume that the end-consumer has comparably inflated expectations? If so, then is the net sum zero?
This would seem a tremendously dangerous position to take. It is a fair assumption to make that the consumer's attitude towards social media has a quotient of hype, perhaps even equivalent to that of the brand or agency. But the disenchantment that will be felt afterwards by the consumer has a direct impact upon the brand's equity. This may well track with the overall disenchantment trend of the new medium, but will be more or less guaranteed not to outperform.
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