Optimism for a change
The news in our industry is starting to look a bit more positive lately. The velocity at which ad spending declined over the last two years has gone from outright crash to crawl, with the expectation that we'll start seeing increases in late 2010 and into 2011. "The economic cycle has reached bottom -- at least for the online ad industry," said David Hallerman, eMarketer senior analyst and author of the new report, "US Ad Spending." He notes that although the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers indicated that spending in the first three quarters of 2009 fell by 5.3 percent, eMarketer's estimates indicate a smaller loss of 2.5 percent during Q4.
If you live in pockets of the traditional advertising space, such as radio and print, the news will continue to be bleak for longer, with projected declines of greater than 4 percent in 2010 for newspapers and magazines. However, TV and outdoor are actually forecasted to increase slightly next year (approximately 2 percent), with internet leading the charge at a bump of 11.6 percent (source: ZenithOptimedia).
This particularly good news for those of us on the interactive side simply quantifies what many of us who live here day-in and day-out have experienced this year: continued growth. While most experts and researchers have announced that the trough is bottoming out, many of us have seen quite a bit of sunshine through the general advertising clouds. The overall picture is a $440 billion global industry, and internet advertising still represents less than 14 percent of that mark. We have a lot more room to grow.
What follows are a few signs that I witnessed in the latter part of 2009, from a small corner of the U.S. in San Diego, that might resonate with you and provide some optimism for recovery in 2010. I am sharing these as my own observations to open the dialog with others who might share what they've witnessed, positive or negative, as a digital imprint of what we were thinking as we enter into a new decade.
