The web is quickly moving from a web of content to a web of applications. And the market for mobile applications is growing at a frenetic rate. Analyst firm Gartner is predicting that revenue from applications will grow from $4.2 billion in 2009 to $29.5 billion in 2013. And this proliferation of widgets, gadgets and apps looks to dramatically change the way we access content as we bypass more and more search engines on our way to reaching our choice of content.
As recently as a year ago, Google would have been the default starting point to find our content, but increasingly our new entry point is likely to be a mobile app. The number of apps available today is already considerable, and with new ones being launched every day, the future is likely to look very different.
Consumers are already displaying an insatiable appetite with iPhone owners, on average, downloading more than 20 applications to their devices (up to 40 according to some reports). The market is on a steep growth curve as more and more companies join the party. A good example is the Ovi Store, owned by Nokia (which currently enjoys around 40 per cent of the smartphone market) as it passed a significant milestone in January, with more than one million downloads.
Winner (usually) takes it all
As technologies develop and markets evolve there will always be winners and losers. The winners are usually those that understand that change is inevitable and embrace it, keeping one eye firmly focused on the future. Having a view of where things are moving towards is vital, but being confident enough to back yourself and invest in the technological advancements that could help realise the potential of those trends is risky. But success lies with those who have enough insight to get the future predictions right, and who have the courage (and pockets) to take the risk.
Google is a perfect example of a winner. It's been widely reported that the rate of growth of paid search in the U.S. is slowing and it certainly feels like search is maturing. For a company where the lion's share of revenue has come from paid search, and a market which has come to expect exponential growth, this has to be concerning. Where to go from here? How does it continue to keep the market happy and fulfil its plans of changing the planet for the better?
Mobiles apps could be part of the answer. It feels like apps could be a big growth area -- something that will deliver the kind of exponential growth rates that search has enjoyed over the past decade. And like a true winner, Google has clocked the opportunity and I believe it's gearing up to win the spoils.
Game-changing Google
The industry's fascination with Google is reflected in the thousands of articles that are written every year. Many have tried (and continue to try) to second-guess what Google's next move will be. But mobile has been on Google's radar for many years. Back in 2008, CEO Eric Schmidt was quoted as saying, 'The most obvious large space of advertising is the mobile internet. The next big wave in mobile advertising is the mobile internet.'
You only have to look at its acquisition track record to see that Google means business in the mobile internet space. The acquisition of Android, the open source operating system for mobile phones, back in 2005, the more recent purchase of AdMob, and last month's much-hyped Nexus One launch all underscore Google's intent. I believe these are the fundamental foundations of Google's strategy to dominate the mobile world.
What Google did next...
If you believe what you read, Google is compiling all the pieces that will enable it to deliver what they are calling 'the single mobile lifestyle'. It wants to become the go-to source for all your needs when you're out and about -- all seamlessly knitted together. It has the device, the data, the network, the map that tells you how to get there and the coupon you use to get a discount at a preferred restaurant or local shop, all in one seamless experience. And much of this content will be accessed not necessarily by search, but via apps. Are apps the key to the future? It's too early to tell, but with Nexus One now taking Android to the masses, Google importantly controls the platform upon which the developer community can build their apps.
The mobile web doesn't have the reach of the desktop web but it does have more engagement and immediacy. One thing that is certain is that soon it will have the reach. And with a behemoth like Google propelling the industry forward with vision and confidence, this can only be a good thing for marketers and agencies that are getting ready to capitalise. Dare I say the era of mobile has finally arrived?
Grant Keller is EMEA director at Acceleration
