5 forces that could make Foursquare obsolete

While I wasn't one of the first to sign up for Foursquare, I can at least say I got in among the first 500,000. That used to be something I could speak proudly about with those (like me) who follow this social media stuff a bit too closely. I could mention all my mayorships and brag about my Super Mayor and Crunked badges (whatever that is), but it doesn't mean all that much to me or anyone else these days.

There are a number of factors threatening to make Foursquare obsolete, and they're coming quickly. It turns out that these factors aren't dramatic shifts, demographics, or big changes in technology. They are things that exist right now that are slowly but surely doing everything Foursquare does, but better (or bigger, faster, or smarter).

I'll put them in order from the lowest to the biggest impact.

1. Digital clutter and the annoyance factor
A few years ago (and even a bit today in certain circles), whenever you asked nearly anyone if they used Twitter, the clichéd response you got was, "Why the hell do I care what people I don't know had for breakfast?" In most regards, Twitter has gone beyond that and moved into a more mainstream position. Not everyone may know the benefits of Twitter, but they know it will tell you more than the gastronomic habits of strangers. The thing is, these people were right. Twitter used to be useless updates (and spam) about nothing. In other words, it was amazingly annoying. Today, it has evolved to become a useful source of information and communication.

Enter Foursquare. Just as my Twitter stream was opening up and ridding itself of worthless status updates, along comes Foursquare update after Foursquare update directly into my feed on Twitter... and on Facebook. "I'm at Starbucks." "I'm at Twin Pines Mall." "I'm at the New England Whaling Museum."

It made me realize that I couldn't care less what people were doing on Foursquare, and that constant updates from my "friends" on their whereabouts was nothing more than an annoyance. As our lives get more cluttered with digital noise, our threshold for annoying has gone way down. While this might not even be Foursquare's fault, it's the one that is going to be punished by turning off potential future users.

"Why am I bothering to check in?" many people ask. Well, in what's now social media lore, Gary Vaynerchuk explained this at a past SXSW (and I'm paraphrasing): "If someone gives you a free beer when you check in, you're going to check in." Of course, the problem is that they don't give you a free beer. At least, they don't at most places, and where they do, it's only for the mayor. If I'm not the mayor, I may earn a free beer after five or 10 check-ins. Is that enough to remember and compel me to check in? Maybe. But here's one more problem: Let's assume that the mayor of every bar gets a free beer. What do you think that creates? That's right -- a bunch of liars. It creates a bunch of people who check in even when they aren't really there. Maybe as they drive or walk by, or maybe when they're at the bar across the street. You don't really have to be at the place to check in, and when free beer is on the line, ethics go out the window.

Unfortunately, GPS isn't accurate enough to consistently tell if you're really inside the store (never mind if you actually bought something). So for business owners, as you offer better and more specials, you have another problem: proving that people aren't cheating. If you don't, those who are playing fair will get annoyed, and who will they blame? You. Business owners have enough to worry about without policing Foursquare. I know that I'm sometimes forced to cut out UPC codes from boxes as a proof of purchase, but who's going to create a "proof of location"?

The net result of all of this? It's one more thing for people to worry about and deal with every day. People need fewer things to do that make less work for them. Adding checking in to that list is just one too many things for most people.

2. Niche competition
Another major factor that will hurt Foursquare are niche competitors. What I'm not talking about here are other location-based applications like Gowalla, Loopt, or even SCVNGR. I'm talking about applications that already do a much better job at the things Foursquare hopes to deliver in the future. For example, Foursquare's latest push is Tips and To-Do Lists. The idea is simple. When you're looking for a new place to try out or find in a new city, open up Foursquare and see what people recommend. Of course, for anyone who has read a tip in Foursquare, you know they aren't terribly helpful. The local bar near our office has five tips. The most insightful is: "Get the new bourbon stout." While that sounds great, I'm not sure that's going to get me into a new bar I've never tried (especially this particular dive). Compare that with what I find on Yelp. I get star ratings, photos, in-depth reviews (and a lot of them), contact information, and more (including Yelp's own version of the check-in). It's infinitely more useful than what I get from Foursquare. So, the question is this: Why would I use Foursquare to find a new bar or restaurant when there's Yelp? Can Foursquare reasonably assume that it will ever have better content than something like Yelp?

3. Mayors vs. influencers
The brass ring for anyone using Foursquare is to grab the mayorship of a popular location. It's an interesting competitive element, which frankly is one of the big reasons Foursquare is still around. As marketers get involved in Foursquare, things start to change. First, the idea was that businesses could offer a special incentive to the mayor like a free dessert. Nice touch, right? The idea is simple. Offer something of value so that you keep the competitive element going, which means more check-ins at your business and presumably more customers and sales. At the same time, by rewarding the mayor, you're keeping one of your best customers happy. However, is the mayor really your best customer? I think not. The Foursquare mayor is more like a Chief Loiterer. Contrast this to an actual mayor who is someone that might drop by occasionally, and it's a big deal when he or she does. So if you're rewarding the Foursquare mayor, are you wasting your giveaways?

What you really need to decide is where your perks will have the biggest impact on your business. Does giving a free dessert to your Foursquare mayor have the biggest impact on future sales? The answer is almost certainly no. Giving your perks to your most influential customers is what will have the biggest impact on your business. These are the people who will not only tell a bunch of their friends and followers, but also whose opinion will carry a lot of weight with them.

I'd argue that it's far more important to know the type of data about customers that Klout can provide versus Foursquare. Klout uses its algorithms to give an influence score for everyone based on the impact they have on friends and followers in the social space. It also gives you an idea about what someone talks about most, and which topics they have the most influence over.

I can't take credit for coming up with this factor. That goes to Peter Shankman who summed this up on his blog:

"Think about it: What does 'being a mayor' tell the store owner? That this person likes to come in a lot. But if I can see your Klout score and know that not only do you visit here, but you're a wine aficionado, who tweets about wine and recommends wines and places to get them to your friends... Well, that changes the game for me! I don't give a crap about a Foursquare mayor anymore -- I'll look to Klout for my marketing information."

Enough said.