In the email life cycle, good creative and dozens of other variables don’t amount to a hill of beans if the target doesn't want your goods.

I’m often asked what works best in direct email. The question invariably centers on messaging components such as HTML, subject lines and the dozen other variables that go into good creative and/or list selection. However, never am I asked the most important and basic question; “Is my product right for email now?”

One of the many things I’ve learned during the inaugural decade of email marketing is that, in terms of commercial applications, this channel is a moving target. Products and services moving within the email channel generally go through what I fondly call the "missed" cycle. The cycle begins with a market trigger of some sort, then moves on to an Internet litmus test, to introduction to saturation to desolation and ultimately back to introduction (I know…that spells “MIISD”, but let’s move on). Allow me to explain these stages:

• Market trigger -- Some event occurs that creates better conditions for purchasing a product/service or creates a new product/service entirely.

• Internet litmus test -- This is an edge that the Internet must hold over other channels to be the obvious channel of choice for the target market.

• Introduction -- An initial period when those who are the first to market their products through email win big.

• Saturation -- The competition catches on. Unfortunately, so do spammers.

• Desolation -- Consumers grow numb to anything to do with this product and, as a result, email offers for this particular product finally subside.

A good example of this is the mortgage market. Two years ago, interest rates were starting to plunge. As the Internet proved itself a highly-efficient research tool for rate comparison, mortgage offers passed the Internet litmus test. An email is an excellent way to alert the homeowner that it’s time to click and do another quick-rate comparison. Thus the introduction stage went into effect -- and email offers touting compelling mortgage rates were converting extremely well.

You know the rest of the story. Every financial institution and mortgage broker soon jumped on the band wagon (and soon after that …every spammer). The channel quickly reached full saturation for this product and yes, I saw some wonderful mortgage creatives going to excellent homeowner lists during this time. It just didn’t matter.

Today you may have noticed that refinance offers (even from spammers) are hitting inboxes less and less frequently. This is because we are entering the desolation stage for such types of email offers. However, those of you marketing financial products should not crawl out onto the window ledge just yet. On the contrary, the channel is effectively being cleaned out thus enabling the next introduction period for this particular product to be just as successful as the first when eventually triggered by the market.

Multiply this cycle by thousands and thousands of product types, each hitting the channel with different timing for their individual cycles. For instance, dating is reaching full saturation while IT is heating up.

Now you begin to see where I’m going with this. Good creative, best practices, deliverability and the dozens of other “mechanical” variables don’t amount to a hill of beans if the channel is cold to your goods. As a side note, I often notice that the marketers who publicly slam email tend to have products in the saturation stage. Interesting, huh?

Unfortunately, knowing how to read these cycles is easier said than done. One good method is to allocate a small part of your email budget to monthly test drops as a means of gauging the channel’s temperature. It’s also an excellent opportunity to test those other dozen mechanical variables. Email marketing is not like riding a bike. If you don’t mail for long periods, you will have to relearn everything from beginning to end. Small test drops are the best way to stay connected to email’s changing tides.

I’m also a strong believer in trusting your email vendor’s advice. Their insight can go a long way to help you capitalize on such channel trends. They are on the front lines and should know what email is hot (or cold) at any given time. So much so that my sales team is instructed to make pitches to only those hot verticals where we feel success can be achieved, and to refuse incoming business where we know the channel is ice cold.

Will you be able to spot your product’s Introduction stage or will you enter too late?

As President and Chief Operating Officer of NetCreations/PostMasterDirect, Michael Mayor is an 18-year veteran of direct marketing and a recognized pioneer of email marketing. Michael joined NetCreations as one of the company's first employees in 1998, and played a key role in helping to build the largest and most successful email list management company in the industry today. He has also pioneered many of the email marketing industry's standards and best practices. Mayor is a leading advocate of privacy and is a frequent speaker at industry functions. Mayor is also the Chairman for the Interactive Advertising Bureau's Email Committee.

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