Expect consolidation and integration among other things next year.
Yes, hard to believe but true; we are nearing the close of 2004! All in all, it was a brighter than expected year for email marketers. After adjusting to a new federal law in the beginning of the year, it seems it was business "better" than usual.
So what will 2005 bring us Emailers? Here's what the leaves at the bottom of my mug of Earl Grey say:
1. List Rental CPMs increase; Delivery CPMs decline
A simple deduction; higher demand for list rental but a lower supply of good lists (or just choosier marketers) has to eventually drive up prices which continue to be at a historic low. On the other hand, a glut of Email Service Providers means those ranked in the bottom two-thirds cannot help but to compete on price.
2. More publishers put their lists up for rental
We are already seeing it. Watch for some very big names to wake up one of their biggest sleeping assets. List Managers will have their work cut out for them proving they are the ones these big names should entrust.
3. Major consolidation in the Email Service Provider space
The tried and true print publishing world has a couple dozen service bureaus and the email world has a couple hundred. Simply put; this can't be sustained. Note: Watch for one or two of the print service bureau goliaths to gobble up a mid- to upper-tier ESP.
4. Successful integration of search and email
I will go out on a limb and say one media seller will finally get it and pull email and search together in an intelligent way.
5. List growth will top the list of concerns for email marketers
Marketers are still very concerned about spam and delivery issues but those problems get much smaller as your list erodes away because either your acquisition strategy isn't working or you simply don't have one (hence the higher demand mentioned in my first point).
Generally speaking, 2005 should be a year in which patience and persistence pay off big for those EMers who have had both hands on the wheel for the past few years. Until then, let me take this opportunity to wish you all a happy, healthy and relaxing Holiday. See you next year!
Michael Mayor is president of NetCreations, the customer acquisition and data division of Return Path The Email Performance Company. He is a 19-year veteran of direct marketing and a recognized pioneer of email marketing. Mayor joined NetCreation's as one of the company's first employees in 1998, and played a key role in helping to build the largest email list management company in the industry today. He has also pioneered many of the email marketing industry's standards and best practices. Mayor is a leading advocate of privacy and is a frequent speaker at industry functions.