eMarketer looks at the potential for this new advertising channel.
Marketers are being deluged with the exotic possibilities around new content channels on various consumer devices. Lost in the buzz is the fact that, in certain areas, semantics matter. Nowhere is this truer than for mobile television, or video content broadcast over a mobile cellular network.
Top-level mobile broadcast video services that mimic television launched in a only a few markets less than a year ago, and the content deals that matter (i.e. those between a major carrier and a major broadcaster) have only been even attempted in the last nine months.
Specific forecasts for Mobile TV, including eMarketer's, are therefore very speculative
Forecasts are not, however, non-existent. In May 2005, Frost & Sullivan projected that US mobile video service revenue, including subscription and advertising earnings, would exceed $1.5 billion by 2009.
In August 2005, Strategy Analytics weighed in with a similar projection, putting total revenue for all mobile video services at $1.7 billion by 2010 (though these numbers refer to North America, not just the US). These numbers and those from Frost & Sullivan are for all mobile video services, with mobile TV expected to be a significant part of the total.
ABI Research takes a different perspective and looks at mobile TV revenue specifically but also looks at the worldwide business. In April 2005, ABI Research predicted worldwide mobile TV revenues would reach a jaw-dropping $27 billion by 2010.
Juniper Research planted one of the most specific stakes in the ground in September 2005 by forecasting that, by the end of 2010, mobile TV will be offered in at least 21 countries and total streamed and broadcast TV revenue will reach $7.6 billion by 2010.
eMarketer uses projections for 3G from Informa Telecoms and Media as the benchmark for 3G network penetration. These data point to around 795 million 3G subscribers worldwide by 2009.
Taking into account the percentage of 3G users who currently watch video on their phones (as well the likely growth in this percentage), eMarketer projects that there will be over 520 million global 3G video downloaders by 2009. Of these, about 120 million will be viewers of premium video services, paid for on top of basic mobile phone fees or supported by advertising.
The mobile TV audience will be within this group. Taking into account a range of user surveys, eMarketer projects that some 83 percent of these premium video viewers will be watching mobile TV in 2009, implying a total mobile TV audience of around 100 million.
eMarketer projects that there will be 55 million 3G subscribers in the US in 2009. Based on the above methodology, some 7 million of these will be mobile TV viewers.
John Gauntt is a senior analyst at eMarketer. This article is drawn from eMarketer's new report Mobile TV: Monetizing The Smallest Screen.
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