News that Google's paid clicks dropped 7 percent in January has fueled speculation on Wall Street that trouble for the search giant could signal a worsening U.S. economy and tough times for the advertising industry. But while the comScore data isn't good for Google, not all web watchers think a drop on paid clicks means gloom and doom for the sector.
Citing comScore numbers, both Bear Sterns and Citigroup expressed concern that a decline in Google's paid click business through the last quarter of 2007 and an overall flattening out from year-to-year could be a sign of weakness in the U.S. economy. A MarketWatch story also blamed the data for a drop in Google's stock price, adding to fears that the sector faces difficulties ahead.
While comScore's raw data has fueled doubt among financial analysts, another web measurement firm, Hitwise, isn't so sure a drop in paid links means a recession.
According to Bill Tancer, general manager of global research at Hitwise, a recession would mean a drop in traffic from Google to retail sites. But so far, that hasn't happened, and traffic from Google to retail sites continues to increase.
Recent figures released by the IAB also suggest that the online ad industry remains strong. According to the IAB, ad revenue grew by 25 percent in 2007 to $21 billion. However, the industry could see a slowdown in growth if the U.S. economy weakens. But that slowing may be tempered for the online sector, according to the IAB because digital represents less than 10 percent of all U.S. ad spending.