Google is in trouble and so is the U.S. economy. That was the conclusion earlier this week when Wall Street analysts scrutinized comScore numbers that showed a decline in Google's paid clicks business. But now, a new set of data points show a rather different conclusion.
According to The New York Times, search marketing firm SearchIgnite found that paid clicks were actually up 45.7 percent between Jan. 1 and Feb. 15. ComScore's numbers reported a 7 percent decline in paid clicks and an overall flattening out of the business in the year-over-year numbers.
While the comScore numbers covered a slightly different time period -- December to January -- the diverging data seems to have sparked a debate about the vitality of Google and the overall health of digital.
In response, comScore CEO Dr. Magid Abraham and James Lamberti, SVP for media and search, have posted an article on the company's blog that seems to reject -- ever so slightly -- some of the conclusions drawn by Wall Street analysts who relied on their initial numbers.
"The information triggered a flurry of reactions in the media and the financial community that centered on two concerns: 1) a potentially weak first quarter outlook for Google, and 2) an indication that a soft U.S. economy is beginning to drag down the online advertising market," the post read. "While we do not claim that these concerns are unwarranted, we believe a careful analysis of our search data does not lend them direct support."
Instead, Abraham and Lamberti attributed the drop in Google's paid click numbers to the search giant's own quality control measures.
Surveying a handful of other search marketing firms, The New York Times found that SearchIgnite was not alone. Though they did not have identical numbers, Efficient Frontier and Marin Software both told the paper that they had seen an uptick in the amount of money spent on Google in February.
While no immediate resolution seems apparent, one thing that is certain is uncertainty itself. Yesterday, LendingTree.com, one of the nation's biggest buyers of search marketing, said it would rely on natural results and forgo its paid search efforts.
The good news/bad news cycle that seems to be surrounding Google, digital and the wider U.S. economy, may have prompted John Battelle to wryly observe that the "Google sky is probably not falling." However, industry observers would be hard-pressed to call it a clear blue sky, either.
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