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November 25, 2008
Online faces long road to recovery

Online advertising may be up year-over-year, but the dramatic growth the industry has experienced in the past won't continue into 2009, according to the latest predictions from eMarketer.

The dire economic situation has forced the forecaster to scale back its 2009 predictions for the second time in six months, and the latest estimate has online ad spend growing to $25.7 billion in 2009, or 8.9 percent growth over the $23.6 billion that will be spent this year. In August, eMarketer predicted online ad spending would grow 14.5 percent in 2009, and even that was greatly scaled down from the firm's March forecast, which predicted internet ad spending would hit $30 billion in 2009.

While it may be too soon to predict, spending won't grow tremendously in the near future, either. In 2010, spending will grow 10.9 percent, and by 2013, it will hit 13.5, according to eMarketer.

The bright spot is paid search, which has outpaced all other forms of online marketing over the past few years. Paid search spending will rise 21.4 percent this year, and search ads will bring in $12.3 billion next year, according to the Associated Press.

Conversely, display ads won't fare as well. Spending on display will rise to $4.9 billion next year, which is $1 billion less than eMarketer's previous forecast.

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